Ivone

Dissipated

Active from March 8, 2025 at 06:00 AM to March 14, 2025 at 06:00 PM

Track map of Ivone

Peak Category

Dissipated

Minimum Pressure

hPa

Maximum Wind Speed

94 km/h

Region

South Indian Ocean

Key Events

Formation

March 8, 2025 at 06:00 AM

-11.9°N, 84.7°E

Dissipation

March 14, 2025 at 06:00 PM

-26.3°N, 66.2°E

Storm Timeline

Ivone formed as tropical_cyclone at -11.9°N, 84.7°E with winds of 61 km/h

Ivone intensified to tropical_cyclone at -13.1°N, 83.9°E with winds of 72 km/h

Ivone intensified to tropical_cyclone at -15.2°N, 84.1°E with winds of 79 km/h

Ivone reached peak intensity as tropical_cyclone at -17.4°N, 83.1°E with winds of 94 km/h

Ivone weakened to tropical_cyclone at -19.2°N, 82.2°E with winds of 79 km/h

March 10, 2025 at 06:00 PM: maintain at -20.2°N, 81.0°E

March 11, 2025 at 06:00 AM: maintain at -20.3°N, 79.1°E

March 11, 2025 at 06:00 PM: maintain at -19.8°N, 77.0°E

Ivone weakened to tropical_cyclone at -19.5°N, 74.3°E with winds of 72 km/h

Ivone weakened to tropical_cyclone at -20.2°N, 71.0°E with winds of 61 km/h

March 13, 2025 at 06:00 AM: maintain at -21.8°N, 68.4°E

March 13, 2025 at 06:00 PM: maintain at -23.8°N, 66.7°E

March 14, 2025 at 06:00 AM: maintain at -24.5°N, 65.4°E

March 14, 2025 at 06:00 PM: dissipation at -26.3°N, 66.2°E

Tropical Cyclone IVONE-25: Path, Intensity, and Impact Analysis

🌪️ Current Storm Status (As of 13 March 2025)

  • Location: 21.3°S 70°E (South-West Indian Ocean Basin)
  • Maximum Winds: 65 km/h (35 kt) sustained, gusts to 83 km/h
  • Movement: 240° bearing at 28 km/h (15 kt)
  • Central Pressure: 996 mb
  • GDACS Alert Level: GREEN (0.5/3.0)

🌀 IVONE's Meteorological Profile

Key Characteristics:

Parameter Measurement
Peak Intensity 93 km/h (50 kt)
Storm Category Tropical Storm (SSHS)
Rainfall Impact N/A (Open ocean track)
Storm Surge Potential 0.0 meters
Exposed Population 0 in Category 1+ zones

Track Projection:

  • 12 Mar 18:00 UTC: -20.2S 71.0E (65 km/h)
  • 13 Mar 06:00 UTC: -22.3S 68.8E (65 km/h)
  • 14 Mar 18:00 UTC: -31.1S 67.9E (65 km/h)
  • 15 Mar 18:00 UTC: -38.9S 76.7E (56 km/h, extratropical)

📉 GDACS Risk Assessment for IVONE

Composite Score: 0.5/3.0 (Low Humanitarian Risk)
Factors Contributing to Low Impact:

  • No coastal population exposure
  • Maximum winds below hurricane threshold
  • Open ocean-dominant trajectory
  • Minimal storm surge development

Risk Matrix:

| Current | Overall
---------|---------|---------
Wind | 74 km/h | 93 km/h
Surge | n.a. | 0.0m
Rainfall | n.a. | n.a.


🛰️ Satellite Analysis & Structural Features

As of JTWC Bulletin 10:

  • LLCC Structure: Broad, shallow circulation center
  • Convection Pattern:
    • Deepening convection in SE quadrant
    • New convective development north of LLCC
  • Wind Field:
    • 30-40 kt winds in southern semicircle
    • Highly asymmetric distribution
  • Environmental Conditions:
    • SST: 27-28°C 🌡️
    • Vertical Wind Shear: 20-25 kt ↖️
    • Dry Air Intrusion: Significant upper-level

🌍 Forecast Reasoning & Model Consensus

Key Steering Mechanisms:

  1. Northwest periphery of subtropical ridge
  2. Interaction with mid-latitude trough after Tau 36

Intensity Timeline:

  • 0-12 hrs: Maintain 35 kt intensity
  • 12-36 hrs: Brief intensification to 40 kt (74 km/h)
  • 48+ hrs: Begin extratropical transition (ETT)
  • 72 hrs: Dissipate below TC status

Model Reliability:

  • Track Confidence: 85% agreement within 160nm spread
  • Intensity Consensus: ±5 kt error margin

🚨 IVONE's Operational Timeline

Critical Position Updates:

Date (UTC) Coordinates Intensity Stage
12 Mar 18:00 20.2°S 71.0°E 65 km/h Tropical Storm
13 Mar 06:00 22.3°S 68.8°E 65 km/h Accelerating SW
14 Mar 06:00 28.0°S 66.9°E 74 km/h Peak Intensity
15 Mar 18:00 38.9°S 76.7°E 56 km/h Extratropical Low

⚠️ Marine Hazards

  • Wave Heights: 8.5m significant waves
  • Shipping Impacts:
    • 200nm radius of 63+ km/h winds in SE quadrant
    • 120nm radius in SW quadrant
  • Affected Routes:
    • Mauritius-Port Louis eastern approaches
    • Southern Indian Ocean transit lanes

Meteorological Note: IVONE marks the 24th Southern Hemisphere tropical system of 2025, maintaining 18% below basin average intensity (WMO 2025 Cyclone Report).*